Monday, December 27, 2010

Apple Options Volume Overshadows Stock Volume (AAPL)

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There is a rare event today that has not been seen on many occasions.  Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is seeing more stock option trading interest today in its stock options on a fully leveraged basis than its shares are seeing.  The stock volume is actually anemic at 4.53 million shares as of 12:05 PM EST when a normal trading day’s volume is 17.5 million shares.

Here is the CALL option volume of the JAN-2011 CALLS:

$trike    Volume    OpInt
300.00    1,342    36,014
310.00    3,479    33,588
320.00    14,436    52,390
330.00    18,111    50,100
340.00    8,880    34,057
350.00    8,802    28,100
360.00    5,978    17,341
370.00    2,545    10,475
380.00    1,084    10,494
390.00    164    7,331
400.00    1,002    16,100
410.00    548    3,725
420.00    1,047    2,649

These alone come to over 60,000 contracts for the JAN-2011, which is over 6 million shares on a fully leveraged basis.  We have also seen close to 40,000 contracts trade in the PUTS for JAN-2011 and close to 10,000 contracts in each of the PUTS and CALLS in the weeklies that expire on December 30, 2010 as well.

JON C. OGG

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Friday, December 17, 2010

Daily Double: 10X Volume Alert in InterMune (ITMN)

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InterMune Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) is soaring with more than a double on key news of its EMA recommendation of market ing approval in its idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis drug called Esbriet (pirfenidone).  The full news and analysis is available at BioHealthInvestor.com in the quest for potential ten-baggers.

What traders need to know is that at 10:20 AM EST we have a gain of 106% at $29.50 and the 52-week trading range is $8.34 to $49.46.  Even more noticed is a more than tenfold rise in average volume with 10.25 million shares having traded versus an average daily volume of about 944,000 shares.

The options volume, as you would expect, is now through the roof as well.  There have been over 10,000 contracts traded in the JAN-2011 CALLS and over 11,000 of the JAN-2011 PUTS.  The trading is elevated in teh April-2011 contracts as well.

Stay tuned, InterMune just got back on the map.

Jon Ogg

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Thursday, December 16, 2010

Interchange Fee Proposals Cause Exponential Volume Spikes (MA, V)

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Proposed change to Interchange Fees from the Fed is causing an exponential volume spike in shares of Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA).  It took a while for the exponential volume spikes to appear but appear they did.

At 3:24 PM EST we now have over 37 million shares of Visa traded with a 11.6% drop and the price is at $68.02 versus a close of $76.94 yesterday.

At 3:24 PM EST there have been over 6.1 million shares of Mastercard with a 9.5% drop to $225.49.  Average volume is only about 1.15 million shares.

JON C. OGG

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Friday, December 10, 2010

Massive Exponential Volume in Tenet Options & Stock, More to Come? (THC)

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Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC) is trading more volume than we can recall ever seeing.  While the company has never really recovered its former glory, the hospital told Community Health Systems Inc. (NYSE: CYH) no to its $6.00 buyout offer.  The common belief now is that Community Health will have to raise its offer price if it wants the company.

Tenet shares have been unbelievably active today.  With just under an hour of trading before the market closes, the gains have been a whopping 54% to $6.63.  What is even more impressive is the trading volume.

Tenet has traded MORE THAN 200 MILLION SHARES versus and the average volume is not even 8 million shares.

Options have been through the roof: JAN 2011 $7.50 CALLS show 17,408 contracts traded versus a prior open interest of 21,921 contracts; the JAN 2011 $5.00 PUTS have traded some 11,513 contracts versus a prior open interest of 14,055 contracts.  The FEB-2011 $7.00 CALLS have traded 9,354 contracts versus a prior open interest of only 45 contracts against 2,164 of the $6.00 PUTS.  The MAY-2011 $7.00 CALLS have traded 15,211 contracts against an open interest of only 31 contracts.

JON C. OGG

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The Big Move Behind Horiyoshi Worldwide (HHWW)

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Horiyoshi Worldwide, Inc. (OTCBB: HHWW) has virtually come out of nowhere and is one we have never covered nor that we are likely to cover ahead as long as it remains a bulletin board stock.  This is one that a trader pointed out to us simply with the big question “WTF?” yesterday and today.  As it is bulletin board you are entirely on your own but there is a story here as to why investors and speculators are behind it.  Horiyoshi Worldwide has risen for literally more than 20 trading days in a row.

DEC-NOV Date   Volume     Close
Dec 09, 2010.  7,662,500  $3.10
Dec 08, 2010.  5,457,800  $2.70
Dec 07, 2010.  7,227,500  $2.21
Dec 06, 2010.  3,374,400  $1.88
Dec 03, 2010.  2,763,600  $1.80
Dec 02, 2010.  1,061,000  $1.69
Dec 01, 2010.  1,557,900  $1.65
Nov 30, 2010.  2,317,800  $1.63
Nov 29, 2010.  2,404,100  $1.58
Nov 26, 2010.  1,580,600  $1.56
Nov 24, 2010.  2,982,800  $1.54
Nov 23, 2010.  3,879,200  $1.49
Nov 22, 2010.  1,362,500  $1.41
Nov 19, 2010.  1,393,000  $1.35
Nov 18, 2010.  1,068,900  $1.28
Nov 17, 2010.  1,747,500  $1.22
Nov 16, 2010.  690,400      $1.15
Nov 15, 2010.  274,500      $1.08
Nov 12, 2010.  288,873    $1.08
Nov 11, 2010.  622,489    $1.06
Nov 10, 2010.  949,525    $1.04
Nov 09, 2010.  1,371,065  $0.99
Nov 08, 2010.  123,055    $0.85
Nov 05, 2010.  20,000     $0.80

The news wires have shown distribution deals being announced, as well as small company financing.  This appears to be a cult stock that is running as it signs more high-end distribution deals for its apparel line.

Here is the company’s description in its press releases: Horiyoshi Worldwide Inc., designs, manufactures, and markets Horiyoshi the Third, a high end clothing and accessories product line based on the artistry of World renowned Japanese Tattoo Artist, Yoshihito Nakano (Horiyoshi III). Its line is being sold in approximately 45 luxury retail boutiques located in 25 cities worldwide. Debuting in Fall 2009, HIII has been featured in leading fashion publications such as the New York Times, International Herald Tribune, the Los Angeles Times, Anotherman Magazine, Vogue and Style.com.

Again, this is a bulletin board company and we do not prefer to generally cover these types of companies.

Consider this as one of those that “POSTED WITHOUT OPINION.”  Still, we had to take a look when there are moves of this sort.

JON C. OGG

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Thursday, December 9, 2010

SIRIUS Volume Almost Double in First Hour Alone (SIRI)

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By now you already know that Howard Stern has announced that he is sticking with SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) in a new 5-year deal.  What is interesting is how much trading has gone into the news this morning.  It is almost an hour into the trading day and SIRIUS shares are already approaching 100 MILLION SHARES….

At 10:28 AM EST we have SIRIUS stock up 6.5% at $1.40 on literally 92.5 million shares.

The average volume is about 58 million shares and the 52-week trading range is $0.56 to $1.61.

The last day that we saw 100+ million shares trade was on November 4 with 185 million.  On October 13 there were 156 million shares traded, and we saw more than 100 million shares on October 5 and October 1.

JON C. OGG

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Wednesday, December 8, 2010

When 2 IPOs Nearly Double (YOKU, DANG, AMZN, GOOG)

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There were two hot Chinese IPOs that debuted today and to call them ‘hot’ may be an understatement.  Seeing two near-doubles in a single day is not the norm even for a bull market.  These two are in Youku.com Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) and E-commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG).

Youku.com Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) priced 15,847,700 American Depositary Shares at $12.80 per share.  E-commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG) priced 17,000,000 American Depositary Shares at premium of $16.00 per ADS.

At 10:27 AM EST we have seen YOKU trade at $27.14 on more than 6.1 million shares already and the post-IPO range is $25.57 to $30.00.

At 10:27 AM EST we have seen DANG trade at $27.25 on more than 13.3 million shares already and the post-IPO range is $23.80 to $30.00.

Chinese IPOs have been extremely hot in 2010.  If you want to know why these are so hot that is a simple reasoning.  For DANG, think of it as the emerging version of Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) in China.  For YOKU, think of it as the emerging version of YouTube that is owned by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).

JON C. OGG

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Netflix Sees Major After-Hours Trading (NFLX)

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Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is rapidly losing its greatness when it comes to momentum and growth investors.  On top of a well known short seller highlighting its flaws last week, the company is rather active in the after-hours session on news that its CFO is leaving.

The NASDAQ after-hours session shows that as of 6:00 PM EST the shares are trading down 3.6% at $183.00 after a close of $189.81.  After-hours volume is also very high considering close to a $200 share price.

Chief Financial Officer Barry McCarthy is leaving the company.  The listed reason is that he “has expressed a desire to pursue broader executive opportunities outside the company.”

The change is effective December 10.  Netflix shares are up close to 300% from the 52-week lows and he holds roughly 51,563 shares as of the November 10 date.

JON C. OGG

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Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Talbots Killed, Yet Options Alerts Matter (TLB)

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The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is having an awful day in the markets and on very strong volume.  The earnings report and the guidance are to blame.  While profits rose 17%, lower revenue and lower guidance is a drag and then some.

Earnings were $0.27 EPS and revenue was $299.1 million, while Thomson Reuters was calling for $0.25 EPS and $303.1 million in revenues.  Guidance was put at a loss for the coming quarter and that translates to an annual guidance of $0.70 to $0.78 EPS against a Thomson Reuters estimate of $0.87 and a prior forecast of $0.84 to $0.92.

At 11:40 AM EST we have shares down over 19% at $9.21 against a 52-week trading range of $6.81 to $17.79.  More importantly, the volume is already over 18.5 million, more than six-times than the 3.05 million shares on an average trading day.

We are seeing a move in options trading as well, although many trades are mixed.  The DEC-2010 CALLS showed the following:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
9.00    1,183    653
10.00    1,227    3,377
11.00    1,469    5,652

Elsewhere, the JAN-2011 CALLS:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
10.00    1,389    2,344
11.00    1,122    2,321

Even the JAN-2012 CALLS are active:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
15.00    2,055    3,721

JON C. OGG

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Monday, December 6, 2010

Gel Results Cause 20X Volume Spike in Columbia (CBRX, WPI)

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Columbia Laboratories, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBRX) is seeing a massive volume explosion this morning.  The company reported an update on its Phase III trial of Prochieve, a gel which aims to help preterm birth rate declines.  In short, it is designed to lower premature birth.  It and and Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) said that PROCHIEVE 8% significantly reduced incidence of preterm birth at less than or equal to 32 6/7 weeks gestation versus placebo.

The primary result showed that vaginal progesterone cuts the rate of preterm birth, which is said to affect 10 to 12% of all pregnancies in the United States with a cost of some $26 billion per year.

In just the first 9 minutes of trading and after the pre-markjet trading, Columbia Labs is seeing a 31% gain to $1.98 and it hit a new 52-week high of $2.00 per share with a new 52-week range of $0.80 to $2.00.  More importantly, there have been a whop[ping 4.5 million shares traded against an average volume of only about 200,000 shares per day.

The market cap after the pop is some $160 million, making many hope that more gains are possible simply due to a small market cap.

Watson shares are also higher with a 2.6% gain to $50.86 versus a 52-week trading range of $37.26 to $52.20.  Volume in Watson is much more normal at 325,000 shares against normal volume of 1.54 million shares per day.

JON C. OGG

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Bullish Options Bets in Tiffany (TIF)

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Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) may have only closed up $0.10 at $63.30 on a normal day with 2.52 million shares on Friday.  The issue is that the 52-week range is $35.81 to $63.65 and average volume is 2.1 million shares.

The real activity was seen in the call option buying with a standout trading pattern.

We saw in the FEB-2011 $70.00 CALLS that the contracts traded were 8,834 contracts versus an open interest of 17,641 contracts.

Despite a monster run and despite high valuations, someone is betting on some added upside.  If not, they are hedging some short-bets.

JON C. OGG

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Friday, December 3, 2010

Volume Spikes From Secondary Offerings (SQNM, DRYS, TOO, QLIK)

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Secondary offerings often create volume spikes in the shares, but we are seeing moves in several key stocks with secondary offerings.  The moves are in Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM), DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Teekay Offshore Partners LP (NYSE: TOO), and Qlik Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: QLIK).

Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) said the underwriters of its offering that priced on December 2, 2010 have exercised in full their overallotment option to purchase an additional 2,100,000 shares; so the offering will total 16,100,000 shares at $6.00 per share for total gross proceeds of $96.6 million to Sequenom.  Shares are down 1.8% at $6.63 on almost 300,000 shares as of 9:50 AM EST; yesterday shares closed down only $0.06 at $6.75 but that was on more than 9.7 million shares.

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is soaring on word that its Ocean Rig UDW Inc. subsidiary plans to offer roughly $500 million of stock via a private placement to raise funds for the construction of its deepwater drillships.  DryShips at 9:50 AM EST is trading up almost 9% at $5.70 on 11.7 million shares versus an average volume of 14.9 million shares and versus a 52-week range of $3.28 to $6.95.

Teekay Offshore Partners LP (NYSE: TOO) is down 5.7% at $27.43 on more than 1.1 million units after it priced 5.6 million units at $27.84 to buy more ships.  Average volume is only 222,000 units a day and the 52-week range is $16.89 to $29.94.

Qlik Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: QLIK) sold 11.5 million shares in a public secondary offering at $23.00 per share.  Shares have recovered and are down now ‘only’ by 1.1% at $23.09 versus a post-IPO trading range this year of $14.00 to $27.70.  Volume is through the roof at 2.2 million shares versus only about 350,000 on an average day.

These are not even all of the secondary offerings today.

JON C. OGG

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Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Unusual Gold LEAPS Option Alerts (GLD)

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Gold is at a crossroads and the options trading is showing some unusual activity out in the long-dated LEAPS for the SPDR Gold Shares. The JAN-2012 $150.00 GLD CALLS have traded 7,479 contracts today versus an open interest of 27,030 contracts.  Last trade was $9.55.  If you go out farther in the LEAPS, the JAN-2013 trades are as follows:

  • $150.00 CALL 3,056 contracts traded versus an open interest of 4,325, last trade $17.55.
  • $160.00 CALL 1,010 contracts traded versus an open interest of 4,220, last trade $15.05.

We gave a fundamental and technical review at 247wallst.com and our affiliate at INO has a technical analysis showing that some key levels may have been reached.

JON C. OGG
1:20 PM EST

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Monday, November 29, 2010

Palm Harbor 30X Volume Alert (PHHM, CVCO)

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Palm Harbor Homes Inc. (NASDAQ: PHHM) is one of the rare exceptions of what happens when companies file for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11.  The company announced by press release that it and 5 subsidiaries have filed voluntary petitions for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.

The company has partnered with Fleetwood Homes, Inc., a subsidiary of Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVCO) through a sale process.

In conjunction with the filing, Palm Harbor has received a commitment of $50 million.  The $50 million may increase to $55 million if certain conditions are met, for a debtor-in-possession credit facility from Fleetwood Homes that will be used to extinguish all obligations due on the existing Textron Financial Corporation facility and fund post-petition operations, commitments to customers, and employee obligations.

Palm Harbor Homes is seeing shares up 79% at $0.26 on more than 7.1 million shares.  With an average of just under 200,000 shares per day, this is about 35-times normal volume.

More details of this are available at its press release.

JON C. OGG

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Amazon Speculators Move to Options (AMZN)

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It looks as though equity traders in high-priced shares are becoming speculative options traders.  Look no further than Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) today.  At Noon EST the stock itself is up almost 0.6% at $178.23 and we have already hit 5.7 million shares.

Here is the volume in DEC-2010 CALLS as of NOON EST, with the first of each of the same strike price being the weekly expiration contracts:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
170.00    1,782    7,228
175.00    949    2,054
175.00    2,323    6,376
180.00    4,294    2,458
180.00    5,111    5,919
185.00    2,770    1,447
185.00    3,686    3,485
190.00    1,511    1,411
190.00    1,512    2,395
195.00    582    601
195.00    999    1,899
200.00    505    106
200.00    2,182    5,320

Shares hit a new high of $181.84 this morning.  The 52-week trading range is now $105.80 to $181.84 and the average daily volume is 6.32 million shares.

JON C. OGG

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Saturday, November 27, 2010

Options Alert: Dividend Capture in Coke & McDonalds (KO, MCD)

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McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) are not stocks we generally associate with dividend capture trades, or dividend stripping trades.  On Friday, there were two major groupings of large call options trades out in January 2011 expiration.

We confirmed with Joe Kunkle of OptionsHawk.com that these were dividend stripping trades.  It was obvious that was the trade, but it is often better to hear from options industry insiders.  Kunkle noted, “The heavy options trading in Coca Cola and McDonald’s on Friday were not directional bets, just an arbitrage strategy known as dividend stripping seen it most every stock ahead of it’s ex-dividend date.”

These dividend captures represent millions of shares on a fully leveraged basis.

McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) JAN11 CALLS:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
50.00    17,300    89
55.00    118,600    5,609
57.50    3,200    386
60.00    259,110    12,644
62.50    2,000    260
65.00    248,016    12,994
67.50    27,070    2,410
70.00    241,166    21,094

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) JAN11 CALLS:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
30.00    9,800    705
35.00    3    1
37.50    20    15
40.00    920    115
42.50    20    90
45.00    6,000    533
47.50    19,500    1,262
50.00    273,000    15,205
52.50    116,518    6,244
55.00    536,030    29,513
57.50    243,090    16,519

There is no such thing as free money, but sometimes there is the next closest thing.

JON C. OGG

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Friday, November 26, 2010

Irish Banks See Volume on Dead Day (AIB, IRE)

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The market is down in the U.S. on a holiday-shortened trading session.  Still, there is active trading in the Irish banks today.  The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) was down much worse but shares are now down about 2.6% at $1.54 after a low of $1.46 this morning.  Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB) is now flat at $1.01 after having traded briefly at $0.95.  Early pre-market indications showed both of these banks down closer to 10%.  In short, any small losses here may actually be considered a win.

AIB has actually seen over 4.5 million shares trade after just 45 minutes this Friday and an average day’s volume is only about 6.3 million shares.  IRE has already gone 150% of normal trading with over 9.6 million shares traded in just 45 minutes since the open versus an average day’s volume of almost 6 million shares.

The difference here is that U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday.  The only giving thanks in local trading in Ireland on Thursday while Americans were eating turkey was that Ireland still had plenty of potatoes.

JON C. OGG

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Amazon Sees Black Friday Options Spike (AMZN)

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Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is up on its own today, but the stock is seeing very elevated trading activity in its weekly options which expire this Friday.  The trade is an obvious bet on strong Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday sales figures being sent through the Amazon.com sites.  An unofficial 4:00 PM EST close of $177.11 had the stock up $8.91 or 5.3%, but you need to see the bets on the weekly-expiration options as the true tell:

NOV25$    Volume    OpInt
170.00    4,179    3,680
175.00    11,777    2,126
180.00    13,788    1,555
185.00    2,239    759

What is odd is that there is the theory of a Cyber-Monday as workers go back to work and have higher speed internet access at their fingertips to conduct holiday shopping.  maybe we’ll see a repeat on options expirations on the week on Monday.

The December Call options were elevated in trading volume as well:
DEC11$    Volume    OpInt
160.00    1,471    3,031
165.00    1,843    4,347
170.00    8,657    10,501
175.00    7,881    6,154
180.00    5,336    3,139
185.00    2,317    2,563
190.00    2,291    1,628
195.00    1,297    1,247
200.00    1,744    2,020

JON C. OGG

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Monday, November 22, 2010

El Paso Trading Tied to Diamondback & Insider Trading (EP)

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El Paso Corporation (NYSE: EP) is down today, but not only news of its own.  It turns out the the widely reported ongoing insider trading probe is to blame.  A hedge fund called Diamondback Capital has El Paso as a key holding.  Shares saw a rapid drop today after 12 EST when word came out the Diamondback offices had been ‘visited’ in this large ongoing insider trading probe.  The bet is that even being involved in this inquiry whether truly involved or even being named could create redemptions in the fund that will require its top holdings to be sold off.

At 2:10 PM EST El Paso shares are down 2.14% at $13.74 on more than 8.1 million shares.  Average volume is 6.5 million shares and the 52-week range is $8.94 to $14.06. The 12+ million shares is worth close to $150 million, a fraction of the $9.7 billion market cap.

JON C. OGG

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Apple Options Tug of War: Expiration vs. 48-Hour Expiration

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is in the same boat as all other companies when it comes to options expiration happening this Friday.  By the look of the trading patterns, we are seeing a balance of options roll-dates happening with those who are making the short-dated speculative options expiration trades.  The action is in the $300 strikes for November, but traders and speculators are making their moves in various strike prices into DECEMBER.

NOVEMBER CALL & PUT trading is as follows:
CALLS    Volume    OpInt
300.00    11,481    25,039
310.00    16,723    43,953
320.00    4,918    43,994
PUTS    Volume    OpInt
280.00    1,273    24,179
290.00    5,763    34,885
300.00    14,161    41,758
310.00    3,156    21,806

DECEMBER CALL & PUT trading is as follows:
CALLS    Volume    OpInt
300.00    4,730    10,727
310.00    5,390    17,223
320.00    3,613    28,844
330.00    3,137    15,879
340.00    1,461    11,104
PUTS    Volume    OpInt
270.00    1,368    29,693
280.00    1,710    33,502
290.00    1,674    11,924
300.00    3,358    15,842
310.00    1,381    12,303

At 11:50 AM EST Apple shares are trading up 0.36% at $302.68 in what is light trading volume of 6.9 million shares.

The rule of thumb going into options expiration date is that the closest strike price tends to act as a magnet.  Whether that holds true for Apple is something we won’t try to use a crystal ball to determine.

JON C. OGG

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Monday, November 15, 2010

Option Spike Alert in Microchip Tech (MCHP)

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Someone is betting on more M&A activity in the options market.  Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MCHP) has traded 9,377 contracts of the NOV10 $34 CALLS today.  The whole open interest was only 9,170 contracts.  While far smaller, even the $35 CALLS saw 560 contracts trade versus an open interest of only 612 contracts.

If you go out to December, it is even more of a standout even if the volume is actually less.  In the DEC10 $34 CALLS, we saw 3,219 contracts trade versus an open interest of only 1,401 contracts.  In the DEC10 $37 PUTS we saw 1,166 contracts trade versus an open interest of only 903 contracts.

As far as Microchip the stock, its shares are up 0.36% at $33.67 versus a 52-week range of $25.27 to $34.38.  At 12:25 PM EST we have also seen 1,039,213 shares trade hands versus 2,697,200 for an average day’s volume.

Options may be signaling something that has not been reflected in the stock itself.  Keep in mind that Microchip Technology carries a yield of about 4% and its market cap is close to $6.3 billion.

JON C.  OGG

12:25 PM EST

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Saturday, November 13, 2010

Weekend Review Finds 7 Unusual Options Trades (HGSI, GMCR, GENZ, SPWRA, ED, LOW, STX)

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A Friday afternoon and Saturday morning review of options trading often reveals some unusual patterns not always recognized during the trading day.  After looking through all of the options trading, we found very unusual options trading in Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NYSE: HGSI), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR), Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA), Consolidated Edison Inc. (NYSE: ED), Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW), and Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX).  We have added color on each.

Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NYSE: HGSI) had a rough day Friday after the FDA has raised questions about its Lupus drug over safety issues.  Shares closed down 10.88% on Friday at $23.60 on 17 million shares.  Of the non-ETF options, it appears that Human Genome was the second most active stock by PUT option volume and the third most active by CALL option volume Friday.  Here is the put volume for NOV-2010 alone:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
25.00    4,367    6,248
26.00    1,984    5,584
27.00    2,657    4,451
28.00    1,552    5,576
29.00    15,316    9,004
30.00    12,047    24,451
31.00    1,144    5,964
PUT$    Volume    OpInt
15.00    15,746    17,889
17.50    3,964    12,008
20.00    5,202    16,524
21.00    1,540    1,923
22.00    1,267    1,767
23.00    3,915    8,696

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) 3.7% at $31.45 on active share volume, the lowest close for Green Mountain since October 22.  The stock saw very active PUT option trading for NOV-2010 expiration, although we were told some was selling PUTS to capture some premium via a synthetic long trade.  Still, with the drop and the levels being the worst since, this activity is elevated as if something may be brewing here (no pun intended).
PUT$    Volume    OpInt
27.00    8,503    8,808
28.00    597    1,391
29.00    620    1,358
30.00    2,545    6,767
31.00    865    5,803
32.00    2,566    2,642
33.00    186    2,480
34.00    1,156    2,168

Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) has action, and not favorable action on the surface. Traders appear to be betting that a breakdown comes in the Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) merger and also that no new bidders will emerge by Christmas.  This activity is with shares at $69.84, the lowest close since August 27.  Here was the PUT volume for DEC-2010 expiration:
PUT$    Volume    OpInt
60.00    6,370    18,043
62.50    12    6,305
65.00    8,300    5,186
67.50    10    4,968
70.00    7,500    8,456

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) NOV-2010 CALLS were very active.  What is most interesting here is that this is already after earnings. Shares closed down almost 1% at $13.97, but someone is making a bet for a big move between now and this coming Friday.
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
14.00    1,244    3,320
15.00    11,439    6,890
16.00    2,469    1,347

Consolidated Edison Inc. (NYSE: ED) must have a dividend capture trade that took place.  Its annualized dividend is 4.8% today and the quarterly payout is $0.595  Shares closed at $49.74 on Friday and the NOV10 CALLS trading was as follows:
CALL$    Volume    OpInt
45.00    19,004    1,914
46.00    11,500    1,128
47.00    18,129    1,711
48.00    12,542    1,264
49.00    10,126    1,298

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) was more active than normal with about 8,000 CALLS and roughly 6,000 PUTS both with NOV10 expiration.  With earnings on Monday, you know this is speculation and hedging going into earnings.

The Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX) merger rumor and exploration of a private equity deal may have some legs back to it. Shares closed down 2.3% at $14.09 Friday.  The NOV10 $14 PUTS traded over 9,000 contracts, but the NOV10 CALLS with $14, $15, and $16 strike prices traded a combined amount just shy of 20,000 contracts.  In DEC10, the $12.50 PUTS traded 14,620 contracts versus 1,404 of the $14 CALLS, versus 3,081 of the $18 Calls, and versus 10.495 of the $19 calls.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

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Monday, November 8, 2010

Major Price-Volume Alert in SIGA (SIGA)

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SIGA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGA) is getting crushed this morning after the Small Business Administration ruled that SIGA was “other than small”  after the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had announced its intention to award SIGA a contract with HHS to deliver 1.7 million courses of its smallpox antiviral for the Strategic National Stockpile.  The ruling came after a protest by Chimerix, Inc.

HHS designated the proposed contract as a small business set-aside at the time of the original solicitation in March 2009, and the ruling would render SIGA ineligible for the deal if not overturned.

The company maintains that SIGA appropriately qualified as a small business concern for this procurement and it will appeal the ruling.

SIGA Technologies is seeing a large drop in shares down 22% pre-market at $10.26 after a $13.22 close Friday.  The 52-week trading range is $4.83 â€" $14.38 and SIGA trades about 600,000 shares per day.  SIGA has options which trade but the PUT and CALL activity is usually low; expect that to change today.

JON C.OGG

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Sunday, November 7, 2010

Weekend Options Review: Citi’s Explosive Options (C)

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Taking a step back and reviewing options trading patterns on the weekends can bring some attention that is not usually seen during each tick of the trading day.  Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) may still be a stock which could double from earlier prices, but the options trading was through the roof on Friday.  It looks like more than 1 million contracts traded hands on Friday in the CALLS throughout various months and various strikes.  Even for a highly-active stock with a low price like Citi, having 1 million options contracts trade is not normal.  That is more than 100 million shares worth of options-equivalent trading on a fully leveraged basis.

Here was the call option highlight:

  • 113,084 of the NOV10 $4.50 CALLS
  • 227,910 of the DEC10 $4.00 CALLS
  • 106,654 of the DEC10 $4.50 CALLS
  • 72,066 of the DEC10 $5.00 CALLS
  • 106,168 of the JAN11 $4.00 CALLS
  • 155,352 of the JAN11 $4.50 CALLS
  • 106,405 of the JAN11 $5.00 CALLS

Citi is far from being among the first to be able to reinstate a dividend. Obviously no one is calling for any buyout or anything like that.  Citi is a bank that is going to get smaller as it narrows its focus down to a Core-Citi-Structure as it continues to break up its old financial super-market business model.

Citigroup’s common stock closed up by 3.7% at $4.49 Friday, and the volume in the shares was also the roof… over 1 billion served.

JON C. OGG

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Saturday, November 6, 2010

Massey Price/Volume Surge on M&A Hope (MEE, ANR)

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Massey Energy Co. (NYSE: MEE) has been more troubled than peers due to a mining disaster.  The company has reportedly been considering putting itself up for sale and headlines from the WSJ  that it is weighing an offer from Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is sending shares higher on active volume.

Massey shares are trading up 11.77% at $47.18 on more than 250% normal trading volume of more than 10 million shares at 3:08 PM EST.  Keep in mind that the 52-week trading range is $25.85 to $54.80.

Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR) is now down almost 5% at $43.96 on nearly double normal volume of just under 4 million shares at 3:08 PM EST.

JON C. OGG

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